Tale of Two Five Points: The Data

Kwon Atlas

Tale of two Five Points is a series of works pulled from my academic study into Five Points within my Urban and Public Affairs Master’s Thesis. The overall work looks at the diverging sides of this complex and historic neighborhood, seeking to bring clarity around terms like gentrification, cultural placemaking and neighborhood governance.

For the purpose of comparison, I matched the census tracts with the 3 sub neighborhoods to see disparities within Five Points. It is important that we speak the same language and understand the same set of facts about the neighborhood before jumping to conclusions and making policy recommendations. In future pieces, I will be sharing my own recommendations and encourage readers to make their own assumptions and plans for action, but first let’s take a hard look at The Data. 

Note: Census Tract “16” covers boundaries that are closely aligned with the River North Arts District. Census Tract “24.03” and “24.02” are the non-RiNo parts of Five Points. Census Tract 24.03 covers what I consider the more Historic Five Points Cultural Area, covering Welton Street, the Five-Point Intersection and the official cultural district; and Census Tract 24.02 covers the Old San Rafael Historic District. 

Analysis of Census-Based Data 2010-2019 

Overall as widely known and expected, the data shows that the once predominately African-American and Latino neighborhood is now predominantly white. However, looking specifically at the changes in the demographics, the data suggest that the RiNo area had increased its African-American population along with its density between 2010 and 2019 while the Historic Five Points Area lost African-American population and has higher property values. The disparities in income are breathtaking in the 24.03 census tract with the data suggesting that the median income of African-Americans is 11% of the median income of whites in this area. At $10,000 median income, African-Americans living in the 24.03 area are predominantly homeless or below the poverty line, likely living in the remaining subsidized housing projects and homeless shelters. However, African-Americans in the RiNo area make 4.5 times more money. This can be explained by a younger educated creative class of African-Americans being able to afford to live in the new housing offerings in the RiNo district. Since there is more availability of housing, there is more opportunity for more diversity. Many of the large-scale apartment complexes have income-restricted units as well, even though on average the rent is $700 more per month in RiNo. In the historic area, housing is predominately owner-occupied and appreciating in value at record levels. This creates barriers to entry in this area for African-Americans and young people in general. Almost 70% of RiNo residents are under the age of 34 compared to 50% in the historic area despite the cost of living being higher in RiNo. Again, availability of housing is likely creating the difference.  In RiNo, 60% of the built structures have 50 or more units and 82% of all housing is renter-occupied. Only 15% of this area is single unit housing. This area increased its renter-occupation rate by 125% between 2010 and 2019. These renters make 62% of what owners make annually in the same census tract. In 24.03 and 24.02, renters made only 29% of what homeowners made in 2019 and unemployment doubled between 2010 and 2019. This data point suggests that either the poverty and homelessness problem got significantly worse or homeless individuals were better counted and included overtime. Census tract 24.03 had an unemployment rate of 7% in 2019, a 250% increase from 2010.   Although the median area income is $10,000 higher in RiNo, the historic area, 24.03, has a lot more class diversity and homelessness which pulls down the median income in 24.03 and 24.02, which would likely be higher because of the higher wealth accumulation in home value and education level in the area. All of the census tracts have transitioned towards being households without kids more and more. Both tract 16 and 24.03 median income grew by about 40% between 2010 and 2019 although starting at disparate levels. This fact underscores the importance of looking at the differences in the way these areas have changed. Both are growing, becoming more dense, populus and expensive to live in. Yet, RiNo is becoming more diverse, younger and cost-burdened over time, thus more vulnerable. These newcomers and young adults are likely concentrating in this area from other states of course but also from the single family home neighborhoods of Denver that are no longer affordable for renters. However, their stay in RiNo is likely to be short lived as they either grow out of the dense housing lifestyle and need space for their growing families or they get priced out since there is very little community ownership and no rent control mechanisms. 

Change in Population 2010-2019

Density per Square Mile

Census Tract 16: 100% Increase 

Census Tract 24.03: 49% Increase

Census Tract 24.02: 40% Increase

Total Population 

Census Tract 16: 100% Increase 

Census Tract 24.03: 49% Increase

Census Tract 24.02: 34% Increase

Change in Age Demographics 2010-2019

Census Tract 16:

Under 18 Years Old 14% Increase

18 - 34 Years Old 53% Increase

35 - 64 Years Old 32% Increase

65 and Older 3% Increase

Census Tract 24.03: 

Under 18 Years Old 21% Increase

18 - 34 Years Old 32% Increase

35 - 64 Years Old 40% Increase

65 and Older 6% Increase

Census Tract 24.02:

Under 18 Years Old 13% Increase

18 - 34 Years Old 30% Increase

35 - 64 Years Old 44% Increase

65 and Older 13% Increase

Age Breakdown in 2019

Census Tract 16:

Under 18 Years Old 8%

18 - 34 Years Old 61%

35 - 64 Years Old 29%

65 and Older 2%

Census Tract 24.03: 

Under 18 Years Old 12%

18 - 34 Years Old 39%

35 - 64 Years Old 42% 

65 and Older 7%

Census Tract 24.02:

Under 18 Years Old 17%

18 - 34 Years Old 35%

35 - 64 Years Old 39%

65 and Older 10%

Change in Income

Median Household Income 2019

Census Tract 16: 86,189

Census Tract 24.03: 51,725

Census Tract 24.02: 75,000

Change in Median Household Income 2010-2019

Census Tract 16: 42% Increase (+26K)

Census Tract 24.03: 41% Increase (+15k)

Census Tract 24.02: 11% Increase (+12k)

Median Household Race Income Gap - Black vs White 2019 

(African-Americans make 31% of whites in Five Points)

Census Tract 16: 

White $91,550

Black $44,803 (49%)

Census Tract 24.03: 

White $90,750

Black $10,000 (11%)

Census Tract 24.02:

White $110,781

Black $35,924 (32%)

Median Household Gender Income Gap 2019 (16% gap overall)

Census Tract 16: 

M $71,285

F $58,281 (82%)

Census Tract 24.03: 

M $69,570

F $52,888 (76%)

Census Tract 24.02:

M $70,694

F $66,250 (94%)

Median Household Homeowners vs. Renters Income Gap 2019 (60% Gap Overall)

Census Tract 16: 

Owners $122,419

Renters $76,013 (62%)

Census Tract 24.03: 

Owners $103,456

Renters $26,985 (29%)

Census Tract 24.02:

Owners $141,563

Renters $38,958 (28%)

Change in Housing Dynamics

Percent of Renter Occupied Units 2019.

Census Tract 16: 82%

Census Tract 24.03: 70%

Census Tract 24.02: 50%

Change  Renter Occupied Units 2010-2019.

Census Tract 16: 125% Increase

Census Tract 24.03: 70% Increase

Census Tract 24.02: 21% Increase

Number of Vacant Units 2019.

Census Tract 16: 457

Census Tract 24.03: 261

Census Tract 24.02: 78

Percent of structures w/over 50 units 2019.

Census Tract 16: 63%

Census Tract 24.03: 40%

Census Tract 24.02: 10%

Percent of Structures w/1-Unit 2019.

Census Tract 16: 15%

Census Tract 24.03: 22%

Census Tract 24.02: 60%

Average Rent 2019.

Census Tract 16: $1,753

Census Tract 24.03: $1,114

Census Tract 24.02: $1,210

Median Home Value in 2019

Census Tract 16: $450,300

Census Tract 24.03: $414,600

Census Tract 24.02: $524,000

Change in Median Home Value 2010-2019

Census Tract 16: 33%

Census Tract 24.03: 16%

Census Tract 24.02: 61%

Unemployment

Change in Unemployment 2010-2019

Census Tract 16: 14% Increase

Census Tract 24.03: 250% Increase

Census Tract 24.02: -42% Decrease

Unemployment in 2019

Census Tract 16: 3%

Census Tract 24.03: 7%

Census Tract 24.02: 1%

Means of Transportation

Census Tract 16: 

Car 58%

Bike 4%

Walk 16%

Pub. Transit 6%

Census Tract 24.03: 

Car 57%

Bike 7%

Walk 13%

Pub. Transit 8%

Census Tract 24.02:

Car 55%

Bike 6%

Walk 14%

Pub. Transit 12%

Change in Households without kids 2010-2019

HH without kids (under 18 present)

Census Tract 16: 101% Increase

Census Tract 24.03: 81% Increase

Census Tract 24.02: 30% Increase

Change in Race

Change in African-American Population.

Census Tract 16: 100% Increase (+813)

Census Tract 24.03: -19% Decrease (-183)

Census Tract 24.02: 20% Increase (+69)

Change in Hispanic or Latino Population.

Census Tract 16: 45% Increase (+570)

Census Tract 24.03: 16% Increase (+132)

Census Tract 24.02: -6% Decrease (-14)

Total Population by Race in 2022. 

Census Tract 16:

White 78%

Black 8% 

Asian 3%

Census Tract 24.03: 

White 69%

Black 12%

Asian 2% 

Census Tract 24.02:

White 69%

Black 17%

Asian 1%

Other Facts:

• Rent: The cost of a 1 bedroom is about $700 higher in census tract 16 than 24.03.

• Lead Exposure: The risk of lead exposure is twice as high in 24.03 and 24.02 as 16

• Computer Access: 24.03 & 24.02 have a higher percentage of households without a computer than tract 16.